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January 5, 2017
US Net Exports Increase using Different Scenarios.
According to the US Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO 2017), which has projections through 2050, the US will become a net energy exporter in most cases as petroleum liquid imports fall and natural gas exports rise.
The eight cases considered in AEO2017 incorporate different assumptions that reflect market, technology, resource, and policy uncertainties that affect energy markets.
In the “high oil and gas resource and technology case,” exports are highest, and rise throughout the projection period, as favorable geology and technological developments result in the production of oil and gas at lower costs.
The “high oil price” case provides favorable economic conditions for crude oil and gas producers while restraining US consumption, enabling the most rapid transition to net-exporter status.
However, in all cases but the “high oil and gas resource technology” case, which assumes substantial improvements in production technology and more favorable resource availability, US energy production declines in the 2030s, which slows or reverses projected growth in net energy exports.
Energy consumption outlook
Energy consumption is consistent across all AEO cases, bounded by the “high economic growth” and “low economic growth” cases. In the “reference” case, total energy consumption increases 5% between 2016 and 2040. Because a significant portion of energy consumption is related to economic activity, energy consumption is projected to increase by 11% from 2016 to 2040 in the “high economic growth” case and remain nearly flat in the “low economic growth” case...
Read more at Oil & Gas Journal.
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